At Any Rate EM Sovereign External Repayment Risks: Staying alive after 2025
Oct 8, 2025
In this discussion, Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan, joins fellow experts to dissect emerging market repayment risks. They highlight 18 sovereigns at risk, examining familiar trouble spots like Argentina, with its election-related uncertainties and Bolivia facing liquidity issues. The conversation shifts to Asian and African nations, including Sri Lanka's recovery post-restructuring and the repayment concerns in the Maldives. While many countries show resilience, the team emphasizes the need for caution and vigilance among investors.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Most At-Risk Sovereigns Can Cover 2026 Amortizations
- Most at-risk EM sovereigns have enough reserves and financing to cover Eurobond amortizations through 2026.
- Maldives and Bolivia are notable exceptions with near-term liquidity stresses that need monitoring.
Screen Then Stress-Test With Reserve Burn
- Use a composite framework combining stock and flow indicators to flag vulnerable sovereigns.
- Then run a conservative reserve-burn stress test to see when reserves fall below eurobond debt service.
Commodity Prices And Inflows Rebuilt Reserves
- Improved current accounts and stronger commodity prices have materially reduced external financing gaps.
- FDI and portfolio inflows exceeded conservative forecasts and helped rebuild FX reserves.