At Any Rate European Rates: market moves, 2026 Euro area issuance, SSAs, Scandi markets and European inflation
Oct 17, 2025
The discussion dives into the recent movements in European rate markets, including intriguing insights on the 2026 Euro-area sovereign issuance and the implications for demand. The hosts explore the European SSA market, highlighting seasonal trends and positioning strategies. Meanwhile, there's a focus on Scandi rates, addressing potential Riksbank cuts and Nibor dynamics. Inflation breakevens in both the euro-area and the UK are analyzed, shedding light on market expectations following recent shifts. Tune in for a wealth of financial insights!
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Front-End Yields Near Terminal Pricing
- Euro and UK front-end yields are now largely pricing in the banks' final 25bp moves.
- Limited room remains for further front-end declines absent broader systemic credit stress.
Record Gross Euro-Area Issuance In 2026
- Euro-area gross sovereign issuance will hit a new record around €1.44tn in 2026 driven by higher German issuance.
- Net issuance stays similar to 2025 as larger redemptions and EU loan programs partly offset gross supply.
Issuance Maturities Are Declining
- The weighted average maturity (WAM) of issuance has dropped sharply since COVID and will keep declining.
- Expect a gradual reduction in long-dated issuance share into 2026.