At Any Rate EM Fixed Income: All the small things
Nov 6, 2025
Join Ben Ramsey, Head of EM sovereign credit strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Anezka Christovova, Head of EM and LATAM local market strategy, as they dive into the dynamic world of emerging market fixed income. They explore how equity–FX correlations signal shifts in global markets and discuss the persistence of low volatility in EM rates. Ben highlights the record issuance in EM sovereigns, while Anezka explains the influences behind recent EMFX movements amidst tech stock fluctuations. Their insights illuminate the nuanced drivers shaping today’s investment landscape.
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Global Growth, Not One Big Theme
- Global growth is the main macro driver for EM rather than a single dominant theme right now.
- The US shutdown and lack of regular US data are creating a holding pattern in markets.
Equities Driving FX As Global Cycle
- Equity–EMFX correlations have risen because equity moves now act as a global cyclical signal rather than sector-specific tech moves.
- This generates a risk-on/risk-off pattern that pushes carry currencies lower in sell-offs.
Low Vol Can Be Enduring
- EM rate volatility is unusually low but low vol can persist for long periods and doesn't guarantee an imminent pickup.
- Cutting cycles and cautious central bank commentary have reinforced this low-vol backdrop.