At Any Rate Agri Outlook for 2026/27: Volatility to return off compressed levels in 2026, as global agri availability continues to slide
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Nov 12, 2025 Tracey Allen dives into the agricultural market outlook for 2026/27, expressing a bearish view for US soybeans while remaining optimistic about grains and cotton. She highlights cocoa's expected inclusion in the BCOM index and rising sugar prices due to supply challenges. Recent US-China trade developments indicate potential tariff changes that may impact agricultural exports. Additionally, the soybean market faces pressure from Brazilian competition. Overall, volatility is predicted amid shifting weather patterns and evolving global policies.
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US-China Tariff Change Is Necessary But Not Sufficient
- US-China tariff rollback opens the door but seasonality limits immediate US soybean exports to China.
- Expect minimal Chinese purchases of US soybeans in 2025-26, with improvement only when US price competes with Brazil.
Volatility And Policy Could Shift US Acreage
- Improved US-China relations and higher volatility should encourage more investor interest and short-covering in grains and oilseeds.
- Expect US farmers to shift intended acreage in 2026 toward soybeans as margins respond to higher futures.
Tariff Rulings Could Reset Cocoa And Coffee Prices
- US tariff litigation (IEPA repeal) could materially change import costs for cocoa, coffee and some vegetable oils.
- Removing tariffs, especially the 50% Brazil coffee tariff, would relieve US roasters and likely lower domestic prices.