At Any Rate EM Fixed Income: The most wonderful time
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Dec 17, 2025 Inesha Kristerova, Head of EMEA EM and Latam Local Market Strategy at J.P. Morgan, shares insights on emerging market (EM) local markets and the ongoing debates around EMFX positioning. Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy, dives into valuation concerns with EM sovereign spreads and highlights a preference for high yield over investment grade credits. They also discuss political volatility in countries like Brazil and Hungary, and specific opportunities and risks in regions such as Argentina and Nigeria.
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Stronger-Than-Expected Global Growth Boosts EM
- Global growth is nudging higher and EM activity surprises to the upside versus prior forecasts.
- EM local markets remain constructive with strong year-to-date returns and tight sovereign spreads.
Check Positioning Before Chasing EMFX
- Monitor positioning because EMFX inflows remain modest despite a bullish carry case.
- Watch our appetite indicators before assuming EMFX is consensus positioned.
Services Inflation Could Curb Easing
- Inflation stickiness in services and core is a key debate that could alter easing expectations.
- Some low-yielding EMs face steeper pressure and potential for policy divergence versus high-yielders.