At Any Rate Global FX: US data, DM central banks, year-end observations
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Dec 19, 2025 
Patrick Locke, a Global FX Strategy analyst at J.P. Morgan, dives into U.S. data impacts on FX and interest rates, revealing insights on payrolls and CPI. Junya Tanase, specializing in Japan Markets Research, discusses the recent BOJ policy changes and their effects on the yen. Octavia Popescu shares valuable takeaways from European central banks, noting the nuances of BOE and Nordisk Bank decisions. The conversation touches on dollar dynamics, regional currency drivers, and future projections that will keep you on the edge of your seat.
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Dollar Bias Into 2026
- Meera Chandan sees a baseline bearish dollar bias into 2026 driven by inactive central banks and decent global growth.
- She expects contained dollar weakness concentrated in higher-yielding, higher-beta currencies rather than a broad collapse.
Market Skepticism Over 2027 Hikes
- Markets doubt the Fed will hike early 2027 under a new chair, favoring 'higher for longer' instead.
- Meera says bounded Fed terminal moves imply only bounded dollar strength, consistent with their view.
Equity Flows Don’t Block Dollar Weakness
- Even with large equity inflows, the dollar can still weaken, as seen in 2025 and historically.
- They note an AI-driven equity bust could cause a short-term dollar rally but twin deficits could reassert multi-year dollar weakness.