At Any Rate Global Commodities: Venezuela – implications on commodities
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Jan 9, 2026 Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research, brings insights on Venezuela's gold and nickel potential, emphasizing the impact of investment on their massive untapped reserves. Otar Dgebuadze, a Natural Gas researcher, analyzes Venezuelan gas reserves and their importance for LNG exports to Trinidad and Colombia. The discussion extends to how U.S. engagement could reshape oil sector dynamics, especially concerning production gains, while addressing the challenges posed by infrastructure in the mining and aluminum sectors.
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Venezuela Could Reshape Global Oil Supply
- Natasha Kaneva argues a Venezuelan political transition could raise oil output to ~1.3 mbd in two years and 2.5 mbd over a decade.
- She warns this shift could give the U.S. greater influence over global oil reserves and keep prices lower long-term.
Monitor U.S. Push For Energy Investment
- Natasha Kaneva notes U.S. authorities are actively encouraging energy firms to re-enter Venezuela to rebuild infrastructure.
- Watch White House engagement and company re-entry as a signal for future Venezuelan supply growth.
Reserve Consolidation Would Shift Geopolitics
- Kaneva calculates consolidated reserves (Venezuela, Guyana, U.S.) could give U.S. influence over ~30% of global oil reserves.
- She suggests that geopolitical reshaping isn't priced into the long end of the oil futures curve.