At Any Rate Global FX: Dollar down after Fed; central banks and US data center stage for FX next week
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Dec 12, 2025 Octavia Popescu, a London-based Global FX strategist specializing in European currencies, and Ladislav Jankovic, an expert in FX volatility and options markets, dive into the recent global rates move and its effects on the dollar. They discuss the implications of the Fed's dovish stance and the surprising dynamics of Canada's payrolls. Octavia explains Sweden's and Switzerland's currency movements, while Ladislav sheds light on event-risk pricing and hedging strategies as they brace for significant upcoming US data and central bank meetings.
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Rates Repricing Was A Global Cascade
- Global rates repricing was a multi-country cascade rather than a single US-led event.
- That cascade weakened the dollar as rest-of-world rates outpaced modest US yield moves.
Dovish Fed Added To Dollar Weakness
- The Fed's recent messaging underwhelmed markets and helped push US yields down.
- That dovish contour accelerated dollar depreciation versus other currencies.
Reassess Positions Ahead Of Double Payrolls
- Watch the unusual double payrolls release next week as it could move dollar pricing materially.
- Reassess January Fed-rate expectations if payrolls prints show persistent labour-market strength or weakness.