FiveThirtyEight Politics

Debates between Biden and Trump, strategic timing of presidential debates, voter turnout concerns for 2024 election, analyzing voter turnout in polling models, limitations of margin of error in polling

2024 election brings concerns about democracy to the forefront. Focus groups reveal diverse voter perspectives - from fear of attacks to skepticism about election integrity. Biden and Trump supporters express deep worries, with Trump supporters emphasizing voter fraud conspiracy theories. Voter concerns extend to limitations of two-party system, voter suppression, and dissatisfaction with political institutions. Analysis shows stark divide between Democrats and Republicans in perceptions of democracy post-election. Acceptance of norm-breaking behavior in politics raises concerns about impact on democratic norms.

Exploring the impact of 'soccer moms' in the 1996 presidential campaign, challenges gender assumptions about women's political preferences, and the shift towards social welfare issues. Discusses the evolution of women's role in politics, the influence of suburban women, and the complex motivations of swing voters, especially regarding women's issues like Roe v. Wade.

The podcast discusses President Biden's challenge in battleground states, split ticket voting trends, and strategies for Democratic Party unity. Analysis includes Maryland's competitive Senate primary race and West Virginia's political dynamics.

Exploring the discrepancies between conventional wisdom and statistical forecasts for the 2024 election. Analyzing betting markets' opinions on Trump's chances and potential VP candidates like Tim Scott and Kristi Noem. Delving into the dynamics of probability analysis and outcomes such as party realignment and legal implications for Trump before the election.

Exploring the iconic phrase 'It's the economy, stupid' from Clinton's 1992 campaign. Discussing its impact on voter perceptions, strategic messaging, and lasting influence. Reflecting on the economy's role in past elections and its significance in predicting future outcomes.

Exploring the impact of campus protests on graduation events and the youth vote for the 2024 election. Discussing the differences in young vs. older voters' perspectives on Israel-Palestine conflict. Analyzing the influence of Gaza protests on the upcoming election and R.F. K. Jr.'s polling tactics. Presidential candidate proposes a no-spoiler pledge based on polling data. Emphasizing the importance of transparency in polling methodologies and analyzing election polling uncertainties.

Senior Politics Reporter Monica Potts and host Galen discuss voter sentiments on the economy, highlighting concerns about rising prices, financial struggles, and challenges in saving. They also explore how a clustering algorithm reveals discrepancies in lawmaker voting patterns and ideological clusters within Congress.

The podcast explores Trump's legal saga with David Pecker's testimony on a 'catch and kill' scheme. The Supreme Court debates presidential immunity in the federal January 6 case, impacting the trial timeline and public opinion. Analysis includes defense arguments on payments to McDougall and Daniels, violations of gag orders, and public influence on jurors.

G. Elliott Morris, Director of Data Analytics at 538, discusses the new presidential polling averages. Topics include battleground state analysis, electoral college math, voter trends, RFK Junior's impact on the race, and the correlation between voter enthusiasm and education levels.