The podcast discusses President Biden's challenge in battleground states, split ticket voting trends, and strategies for Democratic Party unity. Analysis includes Maryland's competitive Senate primary race and West Virginia's political dynamics.
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Quick takeaways
Biden's poll numbers in battleground states show significant challenges
Maryland and West Virginia primaries highlight diversity and dynamics of upcoming elections
Deep dives
Maryland Democratic Senate Primary
In Maryland, a competitive Democratic Senate primary is unfolding to replace retiring Senator Ben Cardin. Prince George's County executive, Angela Alsobrocks and representative David Trone are in a tight race. Trone self-funded with $62 million, emphasizing electability against Alsobrocks, who has gained substantial party establishment support. The race has spotlighted questions of gender, race, and electability.
West Virginia Gubernatorial Race
In West Virginia, the gubernatorial race is intriguing with two members of the congressional delegation having sons running for governor. This arises due to Governor Jim Justice running for Senate. Shelley Moore Capital's son and Carol Miller's son are among the candidates, making it a unique family affair.
West Virginia Congressional Races
The West Virginia third district has become an open seat to watch, situated between DC and Baltimore. Harry Dunn, a former Capitol Hill police officer present on January 6th, is gaining attention with a strong fundraising campaign. Additionally, there is significant interest in the primary challenge faced by Representative Carol Miller, particularly in light of her opponent's involvement in the Capitol insurrection.
Additional Elections
Other races to monitor include the competitive third district in Maryland, which is a solidly blue seat. Harry Dunn's compelling narrative and fundraising success stand out. In West Virginia, the primary challenge to Representative Carol Miller, faced by a January 6th Capitol intruder, adds intrigue to the Republican primary. These races underscore the diversity and dynamics of the upcoming elections.
Three months ago, as the presidential primaries were getting underway, President Joe Biden was trailing former President Donald Trump in the polls nationally and in battleground states, and concerns about his age were coming to the fore. The optimistic view for Biden was that once the presidential primaries were over, and it became clear that the choice was a 2020 rematch, the polls would move in his direction. But the polls have changed little. In fact, a new set of battleground polls from The New York Times/Siena College shows Biden trailing in all but one of the battleground states, with a lead for Trump as high as 12 points in Nevada.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have changed the polls little. They also preview Tuesday's primaries in Maryland and West Virginia, in particular a very competitive Democratic Senate primary in Maryland.