FiveThirtyEight Politics

Global voter discontent is a rising trend discussed by Richard Wike and Matthias Matthijs. They explore anti-incumbent voting, economic factors in Mexico, compare economic policies in Argentina to the USA, and discuss the rise of far-right parties in European elections and political unrest in the US, UK, and France.

Senior Researcher Mary Radcliffe and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich discuss how the economy and abortion issues could influence voter opinions in 2024. Topics include inflation easing, Supreme Court upholding abortion medication access, potential presidential candidates, legal troubles impacting voter choices, and the concept of a 'vibes election'.

Gregory Allen, Director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, discusses the bipartisan roadmap for AI policy, the debate on regulating AI in different sectors like autonomous cars, challenges of transparency in AI algorithms, and the differing US and EU approaches to AI regulation. The podcast also delves into the impact of AI on elections, the political landscape around AI regulation, and considerations for the competitive AI landscape.

G. Elliott Morris discusses the tight 2024 election forecast with potential wins for both Trump and Biden. They analyze polling biases, tipping point states, and the impact of third-party candidates on the election outcome.

Senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik discuss post-Trump polling trends and Biden's asylum order. They play election trivia drawing parallels to current politics.

Recent polls show a slight shift away from Trump in head-to-head polling with Biden post the guilty verdict. The podcast dives into upcoming Supreme Court decisions, playing a game of 'Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.' Discussions also include public opinion on the current court and expectations for unbiased decisions on Trump's immunity case.

Former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth and 538's political analyst Nathaniel Rakich discuss the legal and political implications of Trump's guilty verdict on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, including potential sentencing options, impact on the upcoming election, analysis of national polls, and voter sentiment following recent events.

Discussing the closing arguments in Trump's first trial for falsifying business records. Analyzing defense strategies, jury deliberation process, unanimous jury decision, and potential outcomes. Insightful discussion with a law professor and former federal prosecutor.

Discussing Nikki Haley's endorsement of Trump, upcoming UK elections on July 4, and analysis of recent primary outcomes in Georgia and Oregon.

Exploring the 'beer question' trope in past elections, focusing on candidate likability and relatability. Reflecting on George W. Bush's victory based on being the candidate to 'have a beer with'. Analyzing how likability influences voter perceptions and election outcomes. Discussing the strategies of political figures to appear relatable and likable, and the significance of personal appeal in campaigning.