Senior Researcher Mary Radcliffe and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich discuss how the economy and abortion issues could influence voter opinions in 2024. Topics include inflation easing, Supreme Court upholding abortion medication access, potential presidential candidates, legal troubles impacting voter choices, and the concept of a 'vibes election'.
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Quick takeaways
Inflation cooling trend and abortion medication access impact voter sentiments and voting behavior for 2024 election.
Consumer economic perceptions post-pandemic and public opinion on abortion laws shape voter attitudes and election dynamics.
Deep dives
Inflation and Economic Sentiment Model
Inflation had a cooling effect as annual inflation dropped to 3.3% with flat month-to-month inflation. Consumer sentiment linked to the economy shifted post-pandemic based on FiveThirtyEight's economic sentiment model. Impact on perceptions altered, pre vs. post-pandemic as detailed indicators indicate new trends.
Supreme Court Ruling on Mifepristone Access
The Supreme Court unanimously upheld mail access to abortion medication mifepristone. The ruling surprised many due to its unanimity, addressing access to the drug challenging the 1873 Comstock Act. Public opinion polls favor maintaining access, while reflecting voters' opinions on abortion laws.
Impact of Abortion Views on Voting Behavior
Stability persists in American views on abortion legality, with 60% supporting it in all or most cases. The issue's influence on voting behavior is notable, especially in regions with direct or indirect ballot measures on abortion rights, potentially affecting voter turnout.
Voter Response to Political Messaging and Economic Indicators
Voters derive economic opinions from personal experiences rather than media discourse or official reports. Carrying forward economic stresses from the pandemic, like high prices and low personal savings amid changing interest rates, fuels consumer sentiment shifts. Voter responses to economic policies and societal issues like abortion play into the overall election vibes.
Last week we got significant news in two key issue areas that might shape how voters are thinking this fall: the economy and abortion legality. First, on Wednesday, the latest consumer price index data showed inflation cooling more than expected. Then, on Thursday, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously to uphold access to the abortion medication mifepristone by mail.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Senior Researcher Mary Radcliffe and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich about how voters are are thinking about the issues of the economy and abortion access in 2024 and how that will, in turn, affect their votes.