Former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth and 538's political analyst Nathaniel Rakich discuss the legal and political implications of Trump's guilty verdict on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, including potential sentencing options, impact on the upcoming election, analysis of national polls, and voter sentiment following recent events.
Read more
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
Trump was found guilty of 34 felony counts for falsifying business records related to hush money payments.
The guilty verdict may lead to shifts in public opinion and potentially impact future elections.
Deep dives
Trump Found Guilty in 34 Counts of Falsifying Business Records
In a historic turn of events, former President Trump has been convicted of a felony in all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the hush money case. The jury found that these records were part of a scheme to conceal illegal campaign contributions to Trump's candidacy. Although an appeals process is expected, this marks the first time a former president has been charged criminally, let alone found guilty of a felony.
Legal Process and Verdict Details
The podcast delves into the legal aspects that led to Trump's guilty verdict. Each of the 34 counts against him related to falsified records aimed at concealing unlawful campaign contributions. The prosecution's argument centered on Trump's involvement in falsifying these records to hide his campaign's illicit activities. The jury's decision rested on proving these records as false and as part of a larger scheme to deceive the public.
Impact of the Verdict on Public Perception and Polls
Discussing the potential repercussions of Trump's conviction, the episode analyzes how this event may influence public opinion and upcoming elections. Polling data suggests a noticeable shift in support, with Trump losing ground while Biden gains. However, the durability of this shift remains uncertain, as past scandals have shown Trump's ability to regain support over time, depending on news cycles and voter perceptions.
Political Analysis and Future Outcomes
Further examining the political consequences, the podcast anticipates potential reactions from fellow Republicans and the public at large. While initial polls may capture immediate sentiments, the episode advises caution in interpreting data, especially regarding polls on hypothetical scenarios. The episode stresses the need for detailed cross-tab analysis to assess the true impact of Trump's conviction on undecided voters and the electoral landscape.
On Thursday, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.