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Exploring the discrepancies between conventional wisdom and statistical forecasts for the 2024 election. Analyzing betting markets' opinions on Trump's chances and potential VP candidates like Tim Scott and Kristi Noem. Delving into the dynamics of probability analysis and outcomes such as party realignment and legal implications for Trump before the election.
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Quick takeaways
- Betting markets reflect unlikely VP picks like Kristi Noem, showcasing unpredictability.
- Republican primaries in Indiana signal stability with conventional conservative choices for Senator and Governor.
Deep dives
Analysis of Indiana Primaries
The Indiana primaries saw a mix of results favoring embattled incumbents, establishment-backed pragmatists, and supporters of Israel. Representative Victoria Spartz faced a competitive race but ultimately prevailed, showing divisions within the GOP. Battles between the establishment and conservative factions played out in several open seats, marking an intriguing primary with no clear takeaway.
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highlights
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