FiveThirtyEight Politics Are We Smarter Than The Betting Markets?
May 9, 2024
Exploring the discrepancies between conventional wisdom and statistical forecasts for the 2024 election. Analyzing betting markets' opinions on Trump's chances and potential VP candidates like Tim Scott and Kristi Noem. Delving into the dynamics of probability analysis and outcomes such as party realignment and legal implications for Trump before the election.
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Indiana Primaries Favor Establishment
- Indiana primaries favored incumbents, establishment pragmatists, and pro-Israel supporters in most races. - Some tea party candidates won, but results showed mixed influence between establishment and conservative wings.
Incumbent Losses Are Historically Typical
- Only one incumbent lost renomination so far this cycle despite low Congressional approval ratings. - Expect more incumbent losses as primaries continue, consistent with historic trends.
Indiana GOP Senate and Governor Picks
- Senator Mike Braun left the Senate after one term to run for Indiana Governor. - Republican Jim Banks secured the Senate nomination unopposed, with little public familiarity.