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10min chapter
Are We Smarter Than The Betting Markets?
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Analyzing Betting Markets and Election Probabilities
Participants engage in a detailed discussion about the betting market's opinions on the presidential election, assessing the chances of various candidates including Trump, Biden, RFK junior, and potential wildcards. The chapter explores the dynamics of probability analysis, selling or holding scenarios, and considerations for party realignment in different states. Additionally, the speakers delve into the likelihood of different outcomes such as Biden flipping states, the Democratic Party winning the popular vote in 2024, Trump's lead in polls, and the potential for a debate between Trump and Biden.
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Discover
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode