Russian Roulette

Max and Maria dive into the recent U.S.-Russian negotiations over the ongoing Ukraine conflict, highlighting the absence of Ukrainian and European voices in these talks. They discuss the contradictory signals from both nations and the impact of China's rising influence. The complexities of economic sanctions on Russia are analyzed, as well as how Europe's military role may evolve amidst shifting U.S. support. The episode also touches upon the implications of potential U.S. arms sales to Europe on the region's stance toward the conflict.

Historian Sergey Radchenko, a distinguished professor at Johns Hopkins, explores Soviet foreign policy and its modern implications. He shares insights from his book on the Kremlin's Cold War strategies. The discussion reveals how the quest for international prestige shaped Soviet actions and continues to impact Russia's global stance today. Radchenko delves into the evolving Sino-Soviet relationship, highlighting its historical complexities and relevance to current events like the Ukraine invasion. This rich conversation connects past and present in international relations.

Hanna Notte, Director of the Eurasian Nonproliferation Program, talks about Russia's evolving role in the Middle East. She highlights the impact of Russia's embrace of anti-Western forces like Iran and the consequences of its strategic partnership with them. The complexities of Russia's involvement in Syria are discussed, along with the necessity for Gulf states to counterbalance that influence. The intricate dynamics between Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China are examined, providing insight into shifting global security landscapes.

Max and Maria were joined by Dr. Sam Greene to reflect on a quarter century of Putinism in Russia, how Vladimir Putin's rule has changed the country, and where his regime might be headed from here.Follow Sam's writing on Substack by subscribing to his blog, TL;DRussia.

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and military expert on Russia and Ukraine, shares insights on the future of the war in Ukraine. He discusses the shifting military dynamics, including advancements in artillery and drone technology. Delving into the geopolitical landscape, Kofman emphasizes the impact of U.S. support and Europe’s challenges. The conversation also touches on negotiation dynamics and the significance of January 20th, pondering the implications of potential energy sanctions on Russia as the conflict evolves.

Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a leading expert on the Russian military, joins Max and Maria to discuss the evolving battlefield in Ukraine. They examine the Biden administration's decision to supply weapons and the implications for U.S. military readiness. The conversation highlights the manpower challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, including the introduction of North Korean troops, and explores the complex interplay of Russian military operations across Ukraine and Syria. Massicot also dives into future strategies as the conflict approaches 2025.

Michael Kimmage, Chair of the Department of History at Catholic University and former Obama State Department member, dissects the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on the Ukraine conflict. He addresses the complexities of U.S. foreign policy and peace negotiations, emphasizing the geopolitical dynamics with Russia and China. Kimmage highlights Russia's ability to adapt economically amid sanctions, explores NATO aspirations, and the critical need for U.S. military support for Ukraine—shedding light on the risks of strained Western unity.

Max and Maria spoke with Sorin Ioniță and Eto Buziashvili about the recent election results coming out of Moldova and Georgia. Both of these post-Soviet states find themselves at a geopolitical crossroads, with Russian malign influence campaigns directly impacting their domestic politics.

Max and Maria with Ben Cahill and Eddie Fishman about the current state of Russia's energy industry, and the prospects for the country's lucrative hydrocarbon exports. They also assessed the impacts of Western sanctions on the industry to date and ways those sanctions could potentially be tightened going forward. This conversation was recorded on October 7, 2024.Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare by Edward Fishman is available for pre-order now (Penguin Random House).

Alexandra Prokopenko, a former central banker and fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins economist Sergey Aleksashenko to dissect Russia's inflation crisis. They delve into the ramifications of excessive government spending—particularly on military endeavors—and its impact on the overall economy. The pair discuss the sustainability of the 2025 military budget, the strain on public sector funding caused by rising military expenditure, and the vulnerabilities linked to fluctuating oil prices. Their insights illuminate the challenges Russia faces amidst ongoing conflict and economic instability.