Russian Roulette

Max and Maria were joined by Dr. Sam Greene to reflect on a quarter century of Putinism in Russia, how Vladimir Putin's rule has changed the country, and where his regime might be headed from here.Follow Sam's writing on Substack by subscribing to his blog, TL;DRussia.

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and military expert on Russia and Ukraine, shares insights on the future of the war in Ukraine. He discusses the shifting military dynamics, including advancements in artillery and drone technology. Delving into the geopolitical landscape, Kofman emphasizes the impact of U.S. support and Europe’s challenges. The conversation also touches on negotiation dynamics and the significance of January 20th, pondering the implications of potential energy sanctions on Russia as the conflict evolves.

Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a leading expert on the Russian military, joins Max and Maria to discuss the evolving battlefield in Ukraine. They examine the Biden administration's decision to supply weapons and the implications for U.S. military readiness. The conversation highlights the manpower challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, including the introduction of North Korean troops, and explores the complex interplay of Russian military operations across Ukraine and Syria. Massicot also dives into future strategies as the conflict approaches 2025.

Michael Kimmage, Chair of the Department of History at Catholic University and former Obama State Department member, dissects the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on the Ukraine conflict. He addresses the complexities of U.S. foreign policy and peace negotiations, emphasizing the geopolitical dynamics with Russia and China. Kimmage highlights Russia's ability to adapt economically amid sanctions, explores NATO aspirations, and the critical need for U.S. military support for Ukraine—shedding light on the risks of strained Western unity.

Max and Maria spoke with Sorin Ioniță and Eto Buziashvili about the recent election results coming out of Moldova and Georgia. Both of these post-Soviet states find themselves at a geopolitical crossroads, with Russian malign influence campaigns directly impacting their domestic politics.

Max and Maria with Ben Cahill and Eddie Fishman about the current state of Russia's energy industry, and the prospects for the country's lucrative hydrocarbon exports. They also assessed the impacts of Western sanctions on the industry to date and ways those sanctions could potentially be tightened going forward. This conversation was recorded on October 7, 2024.Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare by Edward Fishman is available for pre-order now (Penguin Random House).

Alexandra Prokopenko, a former central banker and fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins economist Sergey Aleksashenko to dissect Russia's inflation crisis. They delve into the ramifications of excessive government spending—particularly on military endeavors—and its impact on the overall economy. The pair discuss the sustainability of the 2025 military budget, the strain on public sector funding caused by rising military expenditure, and the vulnerabilities linked to fluctuating oil prices. Their insights illuminate the challenges Russia faces amidst ongoing conflict and economic instability.

Andrea Kendall-Taylor, an expert on geopolitics, dives into the collaboration between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. She reveals how these alliances are bolstering Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine and reshaping global politics. Discussion touches on the emergence of a multipolar world and the challenge to Western dominance. Kendall-Taylor also highlights the intricate strategies these nations employ to counter U.S. influence and how their relationships may redefine the future of international relations amid rising tensions.

This week, Max and Maria were joined by military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee to discuss the latest phase of the war in Ukraine. Max and Maria asked them for their thoughts on the ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, and whether or not this seizure of Russian territory by Kyiv exposes Russian threats of escalation as hollow. If they are hollow, does that mean Western "red lines" on certain kinds of aid to Ukraine should be reassessed?"Ukraine's Gamble: The Risks and Rewards of the Offensive Into Russia's Kursk Region" by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee (September 2, 2024 in Foreign Affairs)

Max and Maria sat down with Sam Bendett and Mick Ryan to discuss the Ukrainian military's recent seizure of territory in Kursk Oblast, inside Russia. They discussed how this attack took place, the risks and potential gains at stake for the Ukrainian side, and what this could all mean for the war going forward.Check out Mick's latest book, "The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire." All royalties from the book will be donated to support the Ukrainian war effort.