Rose Gottemoeller, a former Deputy Secretary General of NATO and expert in international security, returns to discuss the complex negotiations involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. She shares insights on the shifting dynamics of U.S.-Russia relations and the challenges surrounding NATO membership and territorial concessions. Gottemoeller emphasizes Europe’s critical role in nuclear discussions and the importance of ongoing dialogue. The conversation dives into the fundamental issues of achieving a lasting ceasefire, reflecting on historical negotiation processes and the need for transparency.
Negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine are complicated by differing absolutist views from leaders like Trump, Zelensky, and Putin.
Putin's evolving negotiation stance reflects a potential willingness to discuss peace processes, contrasting with his earlier aggressive military objectives in Ukraine.
Deep dives
Negotiating Peace with Russia and Ukraine
The prospects for a lasting peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia are complicated by the differing approaches of President Trump, President Zelensky, and President Putin. Trump’s aggressive push for a quick resolution struggles against the entrenched positions of both leaders, who are maintaining absolutist views. He aims to ease negotiations but risks appearing less favorable to Zelensky while exerting pressure on Putin through sanctions. The current dynamics suggest that achieving any consensus requires significant concessions from both Putin and Zelensky.
Putin's Strategic Objectives
Vladimir Putin's negotiation stance reflects a zero-sum mindset that prioritizes his historical ambitions over practical outcomes in the ongoing conflict. Initially focused on rapid military objectives, such as toppling Zelensky and seizing Ukraine, Putin's strategy has shifted due to the war's realities, forcing him to reconsider his goals. Notably, he has softened his rhetoric around mandates like 'denazification' and 'demilitarization' in favor of discussing potential peace processes. This evolving language hints at a potential willingness to negotiate, contrasting with his earlier maximalist objectives.
U.S.-Russia Relations and Common Interests
There are potential avenues for rebuilding U.S.-Russia relations, with an emphasis on shared interests such as Arctic science and climate data, critical against the backdrop of environmental changes. Trump's admiration for strong leaders complicates efforts but may open the door for collaboration on pressing issues like climate impact on national security. Nevertheless, successful engagement relies on maintaining strong congressional support for any sanctions relief and ensuring alignment with European allies on shared goals. The complexities of U.S.-Russia ties suggest that any strategic shift must be carefully navigated to prevent misunderstandings or setbacks.
The Role of Europe in Ongoing Negotiations
Although Europe is traditionally involved in major negotiations, its immediate role in talks regarding Ukraine and Russia is less pressing, as the primary discussions center on direct relations between Ukraine and Russia. However, it remains crucial for European nations to prepare for future negotiations, particularly regarding economic sanctions and integration back into global financial systems. Concerns voiced by European officials about U.S. troop reductions in Europe reflect the need for ongoing dialogue to maintain security. The complexities of NATO's positioning and the military presence in Europe highlight the importance of strategic communication between the U.S. and its allies to ensure collective security interests are upheld.
Max and Maria welcomed Rose Gottemoeller back to the show, to discuss the ongoing negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. As a former American diplomat who has sat across from the Russians to negotiate international treaties, she shared her insights about what she is watching as this process unfolds.
This conversation was recorded on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.
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