Russian Roulette

Max and Maria dive into the intricate peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. They discuss the significance of the Trump-Putin meeting in Anchorage and its implications for future dialogues. The hosts highlight the evolving U.S. approach and the challenges that come with potential meetings between Putin and Zelensky. They also explore European support for Ukraine and the shifting dynamics of power in international diplomacy, touching on the complexities of U.S.-India relations regarding Russian oil. It's a thought-provoking analysis of a tense geopolitical landscape.

Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus of government and international affairs, and Sergei Guriev, the incoming Dean of the London Business School, delve into the profound failures of Putin's regime. They discuss unfulfilled promises of democracy and the dire consequences of economic stagnation, focusing on demographic decline and the treatment of migrant workers. The conversation reveals the complex dynamics of Russia's national identity and the grim challenges from sanctions and corruption. Yet, despite these shadows, they explore the glimmers of hope for potential change in Russia's future leadership.

This week, Max spoke with Michael Kimmage about the recent headlines connected to Russia and Ukraine, and what they mean for the coming months. "The Limits of Putin's Balancing Act: What the Kremlin Will Sacrifice in Pursuit of Victory in Ukraine," by Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman (Foreign Affairs, July 2025)

Richard Giragosian, the founding director of the Regional Studies Center in Armenia, and Jeffrey Mankoff, an expert on Russia and Eurasia, dive into the complex geopolitics of the South Caucasus. They discuss the escalating tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the historical roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and Azerbaijan's growing ties with Turkey. The pair also explore Armenia's efforts to break free from Russian influence, strengthen Western relations, and navigate the challenges of its evolving political landscape.

Hanna Notte, Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program, discusses the shifting dynamics in the Israel-Iran conflict and its implications for Russia. She reveals how recent hostilities diminish Russia's influence and complicate its Middle Eastern strategy. Notte analyzes the transformations in Russia-Israel relations amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions, emphasizing a potential shift toward a pro-Palestinian stance. The conversation also touches on how fluctuating oil prices from these conflicts might impact the Russian economy, highlighting both opportunities and limitations.

Elina Ribakova, a non-resident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Vladislav Inozemtsev, founder of the Center for Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, share insights on Russia's wartime economy. They explore the unexpected resilience of Russia amidst sanctions, the dual nature of oil dependence, and military funding's impact on inflation. The panel discusses labor shortages due to conscription and immigration restrictions, alongside the effects of volatile oil prices and new Western sanctions on economic stability.

Max and Maria get another update from military expert Mike Kofman on the state of the frontlines in Ukraine.  This conversation was recorded on June 11, 2025. "The Russian Wartime Economy: From Sugar High to Hangover" by Maria Snegovaya, Nicholas Fenton, Tina Dolbaia, and Max Bergmann (June 2025, CSIS.org) "Russia's Battlefield Woes in Ukraine" by Seth Jones and Riely McCabe (June 2025, CSIS.org) "Assessing Russian Military Adaptation in 2023" by Michael Kofman (October 2024, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Elina Ribakova, a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and expert in Ukrainian affairs, discusses the dynamic landscape of Ukraine's economy since early 2022. She highlights the country’s resilience due to previous reforms, the ongoing challenges of corruption, and the importance of foreign aid. Ribakova also explores the path to EU membership and infrastructure needs for reconstruction, while addressing the economic implications of the war and the necessity for innovative growth strategies in the face of conflict.

Edward Fishman, an expert on economic warfare and author of the acclaimed book, discusses the vital shift from globalization to economic tools like sanctions in international relations. He analyzes the complex dynamics of US sanctions on Russia and Iran, highlighting their effectiveness and strategic use. Fishman emphasizes the need for coordinated economic strategies in the face of geopolitical challenges and explores lessons from Iran that could inform future responses to Russian aggression. A thought-provoking dive into the intricacies of economic statecraft!

Michael Kimmage, a history professor and former director of the Kennan Institute, dives deep into the U.S.-led negotiations for a Ukraine ceasefire. He discusses the changing dynamics of diplomacy since Trump's presidency and the skepticism surrounding possible resolutions. Kimmage highlights Putin's strategic interests in creating rifts between the U.S. and Ukraine, and the implications of dwindling American support. He also reflects on the historical roots of Russian aggression and how evolving U.S. foreign policy could reshape European security.