Michael Kimmage, director of the Kennan Institute, and Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment, discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine three years post-invasion. They analyze the current battlefield stalemate and military strategies from both sides. The duo delves into Russia's internal politics, highlighting tensions between oligarchs and security services. They also touch on the complexities of diplomacy, with skepticism surrounding peace negotiations and the shifting dynamics of US-Russia relations. Insights reveal how European involvement could shape the future of negotiations.
The ongoing military stalemate in Ukraine is marked by heavy attrition and tactical adjustments on both sides, reflecting the realities of limited territorial gains.
Ukraine faces critical manpower challenges, necessitating the mobilization of experienced units while addressing trust issues among troops regarding mission clarity.
Diplomatic engagements involving the U.S. and Russia raise concerns about Ukraine's potential exclusion from peace negotiations, highlighting the need for European support.
Deep dives
Current Battlefront Dynamics
As the conflict in Ukraine persists, the frontlines have largely remained unchanged, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces enduring heavy attrition. Russian advancements continue near key locations like Donetsk, where attempts to bypass Ukrainian defenses are ongoing. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are employing drones effectively to inflict damage, yet they lack manpower to sustain long-term operations, a significant challenge given high casualty rates. The situation reflects a stalemate characterized by a cautionary approach from both sides to avoid significant territorial gains or losses.
Ukraine's Resource and Manpower Challenges
Despite a steady flow of military equipment to Ukraine, challenges in manpower are increasingly concerning, as the nation struggles to replace front-line casualties. Ukraine's military strategy involves mobilizing experienced units while consolidating weaker brigades, demonstrating a keen awareness of tactical needs. Moreover, there is a notable trust issue among troops regarding objectives, which stems from a desire for clearer communication and mission clarity. As Ukraine adapts its strategies, the immediate need for infantry remains critical, highlighting the ongoing strain on its military capabilities.
US-Russia Diplomatic Efforts
Recent diplomatic engagements between the U.S. and Russia have sparked discussions about negotiating terms of the conflict, yet skepticism lingers regarding the potential for meaningful resolutions. The U.S. appears to be taking a proactive stance, potentially sidelining Ukraine from direct negotiations, which raises concerns in Kyiv about being excluded from its own peace process. Talks surrounding critical minerals and U.S. security commitments hint at a complex exchange that may ultimately disregard the interests of Ukraine. The intricate dynamics involving Europe and the implications of reduced American involvement could fundamentally reshape the future of negotiations.
European Involvement in the Conflict
As the U.S. navigates its role in Ukraine, Europe may need to step up its military and economic support to fill any void created by potential aid reductions from Washington. European nations have the capacity to provide essential arms and funding, although variability exists in the effectiveness of this support based on weapon types. The potential for a European-led initiative to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities becomes increasingly important, especially as the conflict continues. Cooperation among European allies will be crucial in sustaining Ukraine's efforts while addressing strategic military gaps that may emerge.
Optimistic and Pessimistic Outlooks
Looking ahead, analysts project an ongoing military stalemate with an unpredictable path toward negotiations, framed by the lack of significant territorial shifts in the conflict. While some remain hopeful for incremental diplomatic progress, the challenges on the battlefield heavily influence negotiation dynamics, making rapid resolutions unlikely. Key figures suggest a future where both Ukraine and Russia adjust to the reality that neither can achieve total victory, leading to a cooling-off period that could eventually permit negotiations. However, without sustained and strategic support for Ukraine, there is a risk of prolonged conflict, raising concerns about the overall stability in the region.
Max and Maria sat down with Michael Kimmage and Dara Massicot for an event in the CSIS studio to discuss the three-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The conversation took stock of the current situation on the battlefield, the state of affairs within Russia and Ukraine right now, and the diplomatic prospects for the kind of negotiated settlement currently being advocated for by the Trump administration.
This conversation was recorded on February 20, 2025. The full video recording of the event is available at CSIS.org
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
