Russian Roulette How Trump's Policies on Russia and Ukraine Are Being Received Across the Post-Soviet Space
Mar 11, 2025
Volodymyr Dubovyk, an expert on Ukraine's international relations, and Tinatin Japaridze, a regional analyst for Georgia and Azerbaijan, dive into the impact of Trump's policies on post-Soviet states. They explore Ukraine's mixed sentiments about U.S. support amid military aid concerns and discuss regional reactions in the South Caucasus. The conversation emphasizes shifting alliances in light of declining Russian influence and rising Chinese presence, alongside the evolving dynamics between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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Ukrainian Response to US Policy Shifts
- Ukrainians were initially divided on Biden's aid approach, with some frustrated by its limitations.
- However, Trump's drastic policy shifts have unified them against what they see as a betrayal, boosting Zelenskyy's approval.
Europe's Capacity to Aid Ukraine
- Europe can provide substantial financial aid but cannot fully replace US lethal aid, especially specialized weaponry.
- This situation highlights a risk for countries relying on US arms, potentially pushing Europe towards developing its own defense industry.
Regional Implications of US Policy Changes
- Post-Soviet states prioritize peace and security due to pressure from the war and sanctions.
- Russia's influence has declined, but a deal aligning with Putin's vision would be seen as his victory, strengthening his regional influence.