Russian Roulette Keith Gessen and Bryn Rosenfeld on How We Should Interpret Russian Public Opinion Data About the War in Ukraine
Apr 23, 2025
Keith Gessen, a prominent journalist from the New Yorker, teams up with Bryn Rosenfeld, a Cornell government scholar, to dissect Russian public opinion on the war in Ukraine. They discuss the complexities of interpreting data and the emotional turmoil behind reported support. Key topics include the impact of survey methodologies and government interference, revealing a landscape filled with mixed feelings of nationalism and fear. Their insights highlight the challenges of understanding public sentiment amidst state-controlled narratives.
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Support Often Masks Inner Conflict
- PS Lab found many Russians who answered 'support' had gone through shock and moral struggle before acquiescing.
- Poll answers often mask inner conflict rather than firm, enthusiastic support.
Survey Participation Stayed Stable
- Response rates in Russian surveys did not fall appreciably after February 2022 compared with global trends.
- Willingness to be surveyed remained, undermining the idea that opponents simply vanished from samples.
Wording Drives Reported Support Levels
- Question wording strongly shapes reported support: asking about 'actions of Russian military forces' yields higher support.
- Measures asking about continuing the operation show much lower support levels.