Michael Kimmage, Director at the Kimm Institute, and Jeffrey Mankoff, Distinguished Research Fellow at the National University Defense, share insights on new strategies for containing Russia. They delve into historical parallels with Cold War containment, emphasizing Europe's role and the rising threats from Russia amid its alliances with China and Iran. The duo discusses the ideological framework of Putin's regime and the critical support needed for Ukraine. Their conversation highlights the interplay between energy independence and geopolitical stability, suggesting a transformed approach to U.S.-Russia relations.
Containment requires a flexible strategy that adapts to evolving geopolitical landscapes instead of adhering to rigid doctrines.
Underestimating Russia's resilience has led to poor Western policies, necessitating a realistic assessment of its long-term ambitions and capabilities.
The collaboration between Russia and China complicates containment efforts, making it essential for the West to engage with other nations strategically.
Deep dives
The Concept of Containment
Containment is presented as a flexible and strategic approach to dealing with the challenges posed by Russia. Historically, it involves nuances that go beyond rigid dogmas, allowing for adaptation in response to evolving geopolitical landscapes. Unlike past strategies that might have focused on unconditional surrender, containment recognizes the necessity of a long-term struggle without clear endpoints, emphasizing patience and gradual adjustments. This approach facilitates political alignment domestically, enabling a sustained commitment to managing the Russian threat.
Reassessing Western Assumptions about Russia
The belief in Russia's inevitable decline has led to misguided policies in the West, particularly regarding its long-term ambitions. Many Western leaders underestimated Russia's resilience, previously perceiving it as an aging power rather than recognizing its strategic objectives. This miscalculation resulted in delayed responses to aggressive actions, such as the invasion of Ukraine. Acknowledging Russia's true capabilities is crucial for forming effective containment policies that address current and future threats.
The Hybrid Threat Landscape
Russia's engagement in hybrid warfare reflects an attempt to undermine Western influence while adapting to its current limitations. These hybrid tactics include cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, and other asymmetric strategies that exploit vulnerabilities in Western political and social structures. Therefore, recognizing these methods as both signs of desperation and continued threat is essential for developing robust countermeasures. The West must remain vigilant and proactive to mitigate potential escalations stemming from these hybrid challenges.
The Global Geopolitical Chessboard
The contemporary geopolitical landscape is significantly influenced by the intersection of Russia's and China's interests, complicating containment strategies. Both nations have deepened their cooperation, particularly in military and economic domains, raising concerns about a unified front against Western powers. However, Western reliance on countries like India and Turkey presents a challenge, as their independent policies might conflict with U.S. containment goals. Developing a nuanced approach to engage with these nations while managing Russian threats is critical for future strategic stability.
The Future of Containment Strategies
Moving forward, containment strategies must acknowledge the long-term nature of the challenges posed by Russia. Historical parallels with the Cold War reveal that enduring strategies can successfully contain threats without immediate resolution, allowing for incremental progress. A reaffirmed commitment to democratic values and international norms will be essential in garnering domestic and international support for sustained containment efforts. This long-term perspective requires adaptation and vigilance against emerging geopolitical shifts that could threaten Western security interests.
Max and Maria were recently joined by Michael Kimmage and Jeffrey Mankoff for a live event in the CSIS broadcast studio to discuss the team's recent work outlining a new European strategy for containing Russia.
This conversation was recorded on January 30, 2025. For a video recording of this event, please go to CSIS.org.
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