Russian Roulette The State of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations with Michael Kimmage
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May 2, 2025 Michael Kimmage, a history professor and former director of the Kennan Institute, dives deep into the U.S.-led negotiations for a Ukraine ceasefire. He discusses the changing dynamics of diplomacy since Trump's presidency and the skepticism surrounding possible resolutions. Kimmage highlights Putin's strategic interests in creating rifts between the U.S. and Ukraine, and the implications of dwindling American support. He also reflects on the historical roots of Russian aggression and how evolving U.S. foreign policy could reshape European security.
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New Diplomacy Dynamics in Ukraine War
- The current US-led diplomacy on Russia-Ukraine war is personality-driven and fast-paced, unlike the conventional diplomacy of the 1970s.
- It has focused global attention on war termination but remains highly volatile and unpredictable, with both sides blaming each other for failures.
Putin’s Strategic Goals in War
- Putin likely seeks to prevent an end to the war on unfavorable terms, preferring to drive a wedge between the US and Europe.
- He may agree to a short-term cessation of violence to claim a symbolic victory around May 9th, but not a true peace.
Putin’s Persistent Ambitions
- Putin's invasion is driven by long-term imperialist goals, not just reactions to NATO expansion.
- Russia maintains resources and societal support to continue the war, despite heavy losses and economic inefficiencies.