Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Introduction
00:00 • 4min
How to Change Your Mind When Challenged
03:37 • 2min
The Disadvantages of Being Intellectually Honest
05:50 • 2min
The Undoing Project
08:05 • 4min
The Mysterious Uncertainty of World Class Partnerships
12:05 • 2min
The Importance of Compatibility
14:33 • 2min
The Power of Pairs
16:50 • 2min
The Importance of Consistency in Beliefs and Preferences
18:59 • 3min
The Rationality Debate
22:04 • 2min
The Evolution of Biases and Heuristics
23:53 • 3min
The Evolution of Biases
26:48 • 2min
The Importance of Culture in Coevolution
28:43 • 4min
The Future of AI
32:47 • 2min
How to Make a Reference Class Forecast
34:46 • 6min
The Importance of Reference Class Forecasting
40:31 • 2min
The Future Is Shrouded in Uncertainty
42:58 • 2min
How to Weigh the Relative Importance of Cognitive Biases in Bubbles
44:41 • 2min
The Link Between Egalitarianism and Innovation
46:13 • 4min
The Opposition to Noise Reduction Strategies
50:06 • 5min
The Problem With Noise Reduction
54:40 • 2min
The Impossibility of Forecasting the Distant Future
56:56 • 3min
The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Noise Reduction
59:58 • 3min
Nasm-Tyleb's Argument for Overestimating Tail Risks
01:02:39 • 2min
The Descriptive Validity of Prospect Theory
01:04:30 • 2min
The Impact of the Replicability Crisis on Psychology
01:06:30 • 6min