The Future Is Shrouded in Uncertainty

Danny Cevallos: Filtet looks research suggests that up to a horizon of about six months, you seem to be able to help people make better forecasts. But beyond that, as he says, the future is just shrouded in the mists of uncertainty. So do you predict that it'll shrink, say to like two or three months or whatever, if productivity growth picks up for a sustained period of time and society becomes more dynamic? Like in other words, should we short filtet looks ideas as innovation or complexity increases? Well, that's a very interesting question. I mean, what you remind me of is the claim for which there seems to be a lot of evidence