How to Make a Reference Class Forecast

"I actually have some questions about prediction, prophecy, and forecasting. So I want to ask you about reference class forecasting," he says. "My question is, how do you go about defining the correct reference class? Because if you're trying to make a personal forecast, ideally the best reference class would contain people identical to you." He goes on to say that it's very clear when you have the same individual with two completely different views of the problem.