The Impossibility of Forecasting the Distant Future

In your book, you argue that in any organization there may actually be an optimal level of noise. You write that whenever the costs of noise reduction exceed its benefits, it should not be pursued. And I guess that raises an interesting question as to how we cope with uncertainty where it might be hard to quantify costs and benefits. It's difficult if not impossible to know exante which variations will prove to be the most successful.