The Importance of Reference Class Forecasting

In making predictions about the future, the reference class could also be like the prior probability in a Bayesian formula. Is that like an inappropriate tool in a context of radical uncertainty? Well, I don't know what you mean by radical uncertainty. Some people are quite good at it probabilistically. And these people quite often do look for reference classes and they do look for more than one. This is part of the standard procedure of super forecasters. So there is a good way of doing it as a better way. There's no good way of forecasting that will give you a very high degree of success in complex problems but you can do better than others.