41. The Folly of Prediction

1

Introduction

00:00 • 2min

2

Romanian Politicians Are Going to Witches

01:48 • 2min

3

The Folly of Prediction

03:59 • 4min

4

The World Cup Prediction Industry

08:24 • 4min

5

Could It Happen to You?

11:59 • 3min

6

What Are the Characteristics of a Poor Predictor?

15:00 • 4min

7

Predicting the Future

18:35 • 4min

8

The Big Dogs Are Worse Than Average at Predicting the Economic Future

22:32 • 3min

9

How Hard Can It Be to Make Extreme NFL Predictions?

25:07 • 5min

10

The USDA Forecasts Crop Yields for Cotton, Soybean, Wheat and Corn

30:05 • 2min

11

How to Estimate Corn Yield

32:01 • 2min

12

The USDA Report - Did We Flub It?

34:12 • 2min

13

The Future Is Full of Random Events

35:43 • 4min

14

Predictions That Work

40:03 • 6min

15

Is There a Better Way to Predict the Future?

45:40 • 5min

16

Prediction Markets - What Are They?

51:05 • 5min

17

Why Do We Pray So Hard That God Decides to Spare Us?

55:59 • 3min