Freakonomics Radio cover image

41. The Folly of Prediction

Freakonomics Radio

00:00

What Are the Characteristics of a Poor Predictor?

Researchers tracked the accuracy of about 80,000 predictions by some 300 experts. They found that there was a systematic gap between subjective probabilities and likelihoods. Dognitism can be summed up as an unwillingness to change one's mind in response to new evidence. There is this modern sense almost that anything can be and should be able to be predicted.

Transcript
Play full episode

The AI-powered Podcast Player

Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!
App store bannerPlay store banner
Get the app