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41. The Folly of Prediction

Freakonomics Radio

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The USDA Forecasts Crop Yields for Cotton, Soybean, Wheat and Corn

Joe Prusaki is Director of Statistics Division with USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. He puts out publications that are read by everyone who's anyone in the industry. His reports carry running forecasts of crop yields for cotton, soybeans, wheat and corn. "I'm a time our monthly forecaster, probably within 5%," he says.

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