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41. The Folly of Prediction

Freakonomics Radio

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The World Cup Prediction Industry

Philip Tuttlock is a research psychologist at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He says there's an enormous demand for accurate predictions in many spheres of life. When you have that kind of a gap between demand and real supply, you get the infusion of fake supply. The prediction business is a big business on Wall Street with futures markets designed to regulate speculation.

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