How Hard Can It Be to Make Extreme NFL Predictions?

Freakonomics researcher Hayes Davenport looked at the past three years of expert picking from the major NFL prediction outlets. He found that an untrained animal would be about 25% accurate if you just pick one out of four teams. But what about a trained animal, like a me, a casual fan? How do I do compared to the experts? Right, so if you're cutting off the worst team in each division, if you're not picking from among those, you'd be right, about 33%. And the experts are right, about 36% of the time. So maybe it's just inherently hard to break these guys' predictions.