Becoming a superforecaster, decision science for better human predictions - Pavel Atanasov-the data scientist show#036

1

Introduction

00:00 • 3min

2

The Good Judgment Project

03:12 • 3min

3

Do You Have a Passion for Forecasting?

06:28 • 2min

4

Are You a Better Forecaster?

08:07 • 2min

5

Who Are the Best Forecasters?

10:24 • 2min

6

How Do We Make the Most Accurate Forecasters?

12:26 • 2min

7

How to Be a Better Forecaster?

14:42 • 2min

8

How to Be a Better Forecaster?

16:12 • 4min

9

How to Work Well in a Team

20:10 • 2min

10

The Diversity Hypothesis

22:37 • 2min

11

Is Consistency Overrated?

24:15 • 2min

12

Do We Need to Update Our Opinions?

26:30 • 2min

13

Finding the Super Forecasters, Besides the Three Elements We Just Talked About?

28:27 • 2min

14

What Do You Learn From Super Forecasters?

30:01 • 2min

15

Predicting the Future of Life Science Trials

32:05 • 2min

16

Is It Better to Predict Who Will Do Well in Life Sciences?

33:42 • 4min

17

Are There Comparisons M Towards That?

37:57 • 2min

18

Is the Super Forecaster a Better Predictor?

39:29 • 3min

19

Can You Bet Money on Your Predictions?

42:45 • 6min

20

The Importance of Having a Forecaster in a Big Environment

48:22 • 3min

21

The Wisdom of the Crowd

50:59 • 2min

22

The Wisdom of the Crowd

53:13 • 6min

23

How to Build a Machine Learning Model With a Simple Mean

58:46 • 2min

24

How to Design a Predictive Question?

01:00:55 • 3min

25

Applied Behavior Signs

01:03:34 • 3min

26

What Do You Know About Human Psychology?

01:06:53 • 5min

27

How to Update a Model to Improve Performance?

01:11:49 • 3min

28

How to Collect Data and Information Better?

01:14:43 • 3min

29

Are the Unexpected Events Happening Early?

01:17:16 • 4min

30

Is It Helpful in the Life Sciences Domain A?

01:21:08 • 2min

31

The Colebration Curve

01:22:47 • 3min

32

Is 50 50 the Default for a Binary Classification?

01:26:08 • 2min

33

Prediction Markets

01:28:31 • 2min

34

What Are Some Mistakes You Made in Your Career?

01:30:04 • 3min

35

Are You Quitting Every Project?

01:33:27 • 4min

36

What I Learned From My Mentors and Advisers?

01:37:48 • 2min

37

Are You a Data Scientist?

01:39:55 • 3min

38

The Future of Decision Signs and Forecasting?

01:42:30 • 3min

39

Human Forece Environment

01:45:10 • 2min

40

Predictions and Prediction Markets

01:47:25 • 2min

41

Are You Excited About Your Next Project?

01:49:42 • 2min