Becoming a superforecaster, decision science for better human predictions - Pavel Atanasov-the data scientist show#036
Daliana's Game
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The Colebration Curve
When do you decide to extremise the probabilities? I'm going to put it in the transformation and decide, you know, the class of their actions. So extramisation works when you aggregate multiple, multiple people or multiple views. If all i have is my own judgment, i wantto train myself so i'm well colebrated. And very often individuals, not crowds, but individuals, are over confident. But crowds are under confident, and you min on axtramise make them more confident. The paradox where duals are sometimes over confident and shouldn't be quite as confident around the edges.
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