Becoming a superforecaster, decision science for better human predictions - Pavel Atanasov-the data scientist show#036
Daliana's Game
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Are the Unexpected Events Happening Early?
The accuracy score was pretty bad. And what did you do about it? Yes, so, um, that's an issue about a santing in formation overtime. So basically, is the information i get early representative of the information i'll get later? In our case, we're making predictions about certain events. Like we put in leaf power by the end of 20 22. Well, a, people mostly don't leave power, unless they're likea, there's a schedule election or something. Those events are unlikely. But if you ask the question that way, and the event happens, it will happen early. It mayt happen in april or may the only way to find
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