

Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part I [9.1.15]
Sep 1, 2015
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Introduction
00:00 • 6min
The Limits of Foresight
05:34 • 2min
The Unanticipated: The Black Swan
07:11 • 6min
The Precautionary Principle for Black Swanish Events
12:57 • 2min
The Future of Probability
14:55 • 4min
The Black Swan and the Black Swan of India
18:38 • 2min
The End of Religion by 2021
20:25 • 2min
The Importance of Counterfactuals in History
22:10 • 5min
The Importance of Close Call Counterfactuals
27:10 • 2min
The Problem With Counterfactual Beliefs
28:43 • 2min