Introduction

Forecasting tournaments are in their infancy as a scientific method and as a tool for improving policy debate. We're still far short of what I'm going to call the Bob Axelrod ideal of a mechanism that can guide policy with evidence based precision. To learn how to make more granular probabilistic judgments of things you care about, you need to get into the tournament and start making Probability-based judgements. So it's very hard for anyone to do appreciably better than the dart throwing chimpanzee when asked questions five years into the future.