The Precautionary Principle for Black Swanish Events

I would suggest that what you would want from forecasters, even though you can't directly assess the accuracy of people coping with black swanish events, you do at least want them to become more coherent. Well, for example, if I were to ask you how likely is it in the next week that you are going to be paralyzed in a car accident, and I asked you how likely the next year and the probabilities were the same, that would be a suggestion that your judgments are suggested. The question is when the force people are really dramatically measuring the assumption that they will get better. It's a reasonable thing to try. At any rate, I don't think there is a magic bullet