Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part I [9.1.15]
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The Importance of Close Call Counterfactuals
There are two different aspects of counterfactual reasoning that's important to distinguish. Liberals and conservatives don't disagree over whether Ronald Reagan was almost assassinated in 1981. Where they do disagree is where they go from the imaginary antecedent, Reagan not being the president of the United States, to the consequence whether the Soviet Union exists or not. Ideology infuses the causal linkage between antecedent and consequent.
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