Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part I [9.1.15]
EdgeCast
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The Limits of Foresight
"We do have to come to existential terms with the limits of our foresight," he says. That doesn't mean you shouldn't still look for early warning indicators, but they're going to have to be continually updated from year to year. "You're better off having had less exposure to information because you've created a lot of misleading stories about what's going on."
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