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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part I [9.1.15]

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The Problem With Counterfactual Beliefs

When we're thinking about counterfactuals, exploring counterfactual beliefs is a wonderful way to tease out the mental model that's underlying your view of reality. Some people are inclined to allow me to go off on this flight of counterfactual fancy and let history diverge ever further from the actual world. The tendency for people, the believers in deviation attenuatingcounterfactuals is to restore history. That does tell something quite interesting about not only ideology but about the causal frameworks that are guiding their reasoning.

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