Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part I [9.1.15]
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The Black Swan and the Black Swan of India
How often, you know, we look back at the last time in the 50 years quantum mechanics was a black swan. No one expected quantum mechanics. Vision as a technology was ablack swan. Dark matter is a black swans, unexpected. How often the black swans happened, physics, has it been constant over history? Is it a function of how many scientists there are? Can we have a meta theory of black swans that there's going to be more physics, more less physics black swans?
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