The Inside View

Alex Lawsen—Forecasting AI Progress

Sep 6, 2022

01:04:57

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Highlights

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Are You a Strong Democrat?

02:31

Is Itolo? It's Not Just, Can You Make Arguments for Them?

01:45

Are You 99% Confident?

01:37

Introduction

2min

Getting a Good Judgment Project

2min

Are You 99% Confident?

2min

Is It the Firs Cor Curve or Just a Celebration Plot?

2min

How Did You Get Good at Forecasting?

2min

Predicting a Meticulus?

2min

The Basics of Forecasting

3min

Is It Possible to Predict Artificial General Intelligence in Lovea?

5min

How to Predicate a Medium for a Week

2min

10.

Is There a Drop in the Metaclus Position?

2min

11.

Is Your Distribution Mostly Distributed?

2min

12.

How Do You Draw a Distribution?

2min

13.

Do You Think Scale Is All You Need?

2min

14.

How Do You Think About Jobs?

3min

15.

Is There a Lot of People Doing This?

2min

16.

How to Write Good Questions for a Canel?

2min

17.

Is This a Coup?

2min

18.

Is There Going to Be a Coup Attempt?

2min

19.

Is the Training Run Start From Scratch?

2min

20.

Is There a Scaleup in Parameters?

2min

21.

How to Write a Good Question?

2min

22.

I've Got a Like a Couples Li Finder.

2min

23.

Is Itolo? It's Not Just, Can You Make Arguments for Them?

2min

24.

Are You a Strong Democrat?

3min

25.

Are You Trying to Figure Out What Eli Koskowski Is Saying?

4min

26.

How Do You Think About Forecasting?

2min

27.

Do You Like the Reedman Paper?

3min

28.

Is There a Reference Class for Predictions?

2min

29.

Curv Fitting

2min

30.

Is There a Singularity in Economic Growth Models?

3min

Alex Lawsen is an advisor at 80,000 hours, released an Introduction to Forecasting Youtube Series and has recently been thinking about forecasting AI progress, why you cannot just "update all the way bro" (discussed in my latest episode with Connor Leahy) and how to develop inside views about AI Alignment in general.

Youtube: https://youtu.be/vLkasevJP5c

Transcript: https://theinsideview.ai/alex

Host: https://twitter.com/MichaelTrazzi

Alex: https://twitter.com/lxrjl

OUTLINE

(00:00) Intro

(00:31) How Alex Ended Up Making Forecasting Videos

(02:43) Why You Should Try Calibration Training

(07:25) How Alex Upskilled In Forecasting

(12:25) Why A Spider Monkey Profile Picture

(13:53) Why You Cannot Just "Update All The Way Bro"

(18:50) Why The Metaculus AGI Forecasts Dropped Twice