Alex Lawsen—Forecasting AI Progress

1

Introduction

00:00 • 2min

2

Getting a Good Judgment Project

02:04 • 2min

3

Are You 99% Confident?

04:11 • 2min

4

Is It the Firs Cor Curve or Just a Celebration Plot?

05:48 • 2min

5

How Did You Get Good at Forecasting?

07:26 • 2min

6

Predicting a Meticulus?

08:59 • 2min

7

The Basics of Forecasting

10:45 • 3min

8

Is It Possible to Predict Artificial General Intelligence in Lovea?

13:21 • 5min

9

How to Predicate a Medium for a Week

17:58 • 2min

10

Is There a Drop in the Metaclus Position?

19:44 • 2min

11

Is Your Distribution Mostly Distributed?

22:04 • 2min

12

How Do You Draw a Distribution?

24:04 • 2min

13

Do You Think Scale Is All You Need?

25:41 • 2min

14

How Do You Think About Jobs?

27:13 • 3min

15

Is There a Lot of People Doing This?

30:42 • 2min

16

How to Write Good Questions for a Canel?

32:56 • 2min

17

Is This a Coup?

34:46 • 2min

18

Is There Going to Be a Coup Attempt?

36:41 • 2min

19

Is the Training Run Start From Scratch?

38:24 • 2min

20

Is There a Scaleup in Parameters?

39:59 • 2min

21

How to Write a Good Question?

41:31 • 2min

22

I've Got a Like a Couples Li Finder.

43:42 • 2min

23

Is Itolo? It's Not Just, Can You Make Arguments for Them?

45:20 • 2min

24

Are You a Strong Democrat?

47:05 • 3min

25

Are You Trying to Figure Out What Eli Koskowski Is Saying?

49:36 • 4min

26

How Do You Think About Forecasting?

53:19 • 2min

27

Do You Like the Reedman Paper?

54:53 • 3min

28

Is There a Reference Class for Predictions?

57:34 • 2min

29

Curv Fitting

59:57 • 2min

30

Is There a Singularity in Economic Growth Models?

01:01:40 • 3min