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2min chapter
Alex Lawsen—Forecasting AI Progress
The Inside View
Is There a Reference Class for Predictions?
There is a class of scepticismabout the for safety, or scepticism of ago. This goes something like this: you should predict things to carry on roughly how they are. Then people say it doesn't look like we get everyone dropping debt. So why do you need to make active predictions? What do you mean by active pos? And i'm not super excited about using models for that. How do you respond to u? Refens class?
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