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2min chapter
Alex Lawsen—Forecasting AI Progress
The Inside View
Is Your Distribution Mostly Distributed?
i think there is a thing where when people try to make a forecast, often they'll do something where they kind of, like, think about what's most likely. And at least i claim, people are often thinking, like, ah, when's most likely? And they think, like, our 20 28 seems like most likely. But the more skewed yor crawfords, the further apart these are. I don't i've got like longer time than that. Slihly em there.
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