The Inside View cover image

Alex Lawsen—Forecasting AI Progress

The Inside View

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Is Your Distribution Mostly Distributed?

i think there is a thing where when people try to make a forecast, often they'll do something where they kind of, like, think about what's most likely. And at least i claim, people are often thinking, like, ah, when's most likely? And they think, like, our 20 28 seems like most likely. But the more skewed yor crawfords, the further apart these are. I don't i've got like longer time than that. Slihly em there.

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