Alex Lawsen—Forecasting AI Progress
The Inside View
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How Did You Get Good at Forecasting?
A, ye, this is like a thiss, like an awkward question or something. But that's like enough data t say that i'm at least not terrible. Am, i think therere a couple of things. A, i also play poker for like nearly a decade,. Not like ever, sort of full time professionally, but like, very seriously. And so yet, ik, in that case, i can explicitly calculate oll proba sat, like precalculated most of them. Yet, when you just see like 20 thousand rolls of dyes of different sizes, ah, you just do kind of get an intuitive sense things like polly That what i actually did
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