The Shape Of Probability

1

Introduction

00:00 • 3min

2

Naseem Tlaib: What's Your Best Thing in 2017?

02:57 • 2min

3

How Did You Find Your Way Into Statistics?

04:44 • 5min

4

What Kind of Money Did You Make in the World Series of Poker?

10:03 • 3min

5

The History of Probability and Statistics

13:06 • 4min

6

The Bayesian View of Probability

16:44 • 5min

7

What Is Probability?

21:37 • 2min

8

The Replication Crisis, Nate Silver's Polling Predictions?

23:14 • 5min

9

The First Rule of Probability

27:54 • 2min

10

Is There a Flying Spaghetti Monster or Something Like That?

29:55 • 2min

11

Is There a Skin in the Game?

31:41 • 2min

12

The Intuition Behind Hypothesis Testing

34:03 • 4min

13

Is There a False Positive?

37:44 • 5min

14

Is It Just Psychology?

42:50 • 3min

15

Is There a 5% Chance That You'll Get a False Positive?

45:36 • 2min

16

Do We Need to Lower the Type 1 Error Probability?

47:27 • 2min

17

The False Positive Rate and the Significance Level

48:58 • 2min

18

What Is P-Hacking?

50:45 • 3min

19

Are You P-Hackering?

53:25 • 3min

20

The Application Crisis, What's Driving the Application Crisis?

56:07 • 3min

21

Is This Undermining the Replication Crisis?

58:58 • 3min

22

Is There a Benefit to Adding Another Zero to This New Proposal?

01:01:38 • 2min

23

How to Get Rid of P Hacking

01:03:51 • 5min

24

The Linda Problem by Kahneman Tversky

01:08:54 • 5min

25

Are You a Feminist Bank Teller?

01:13:28 • 2min

26

Is the Theory of Probability for How People Think a Good Model?

01:15:10 • 2min

27

Is the Bayesian Model of Rationality a Good One?

01:17:03 • 4min

28

The Base Rate Fallacy

01:21:26 • 4min

29

Are People Bad at Statistics?

01:25:43 • 6min

30

The Probability of Being Shaped

01:31:16 • 3min

31

The Probabilistic Foundations of Statistical Network Analysis

01:34:37 • 4min

32

Researchers.1 - A Non-Profit Initiative

01:38:56 • 4min

The Shape Of Probability - Harry Crane