

Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class IV Part II [9.15.15]
Sep 15, 2015
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Introduction
00:00 • 2min
The Close Call Counterfactual
02:15 • 2min
The Importance of Counterfactuals in the Legal System
04:32 • 3min
The Role of Superforecasters in the Social Crop
07:29 • 2min
The Phillips Curve and the Unthinkable Trade-Offs
09:17 • 3min
The Lincoln Bedroom Story
12:37 • 2min
The Role of Hedgehogs in the Intelligence Community
14:38 • 3min
The Perverse Twist in the Night
17:12 • 2min
The Role of Hedgehogs in Predictions
19:28 • 2min
The Cognitive Bias in Thinking Fast and Slow
21:53 • 3min
The Future of Forecasting
25:20 • 2min
The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Assad's Survival in Syria
27:10 • 2min
The Importance of Time in Super Forecasting
29:33 • 2min
The Future of Super Forecasting
31:54 • 2min