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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class IV Part II [9.15.15]

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The Future of Super Forecasting

We've given them lots of common roots of risky-like problems to see if they fall prey to the same sorts of biases and errors. And the answer is sort of, some of them do, but not as many. They're closer to basians. But the reference point doesn't have quite enormous role that it does with most people. So I would venture to say that if we were to rerun our scope-sensitivity studies to the other KT experiments that were performed on Supers Now, they would do better. It's a different, it's a more intelligent future. There are others who are just really smart people who are doing well on the side.

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